Probability of flare, \(P_\textrm{Flare}\)
- \(\theta\) is indicator variable of whether light curve contains a flare.
\[P(\sigma, \rho, \theta \mid y) \propto P(y \mid \sigma, \rho) \times P(\sigma, \rho \mid \theta) \times P(\theta)\]
- Used MCMC rejection sampling to get samples of \(\theta\).
- 10000 samples plus 2000 burn-in.
- Arrived at a threshold of \(P_\textrm{Flare} = P(\theta = 1) = 0.1\).
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